Wire event ledger movements, show winning market by name, seed LMSR subsidy

- Event ledger now grows on purchase and shrinks on payout, mirroring
  the exact amounts moved on the buyer's ledger (it previously had a
  Ledger object that nothing ever wrote to).
- Settlement and event-detail views now show the winning market's
  display name instead of its raw key; event details are viewable for
  settled events too (the picker previously excluded anything not
  ACTIVE).
- LMSR events seed their ledger with a SUBSIDY entry for the market
  maker's worst-case loss (b * ln(outcomes)), reusing the existing
  cost() function rather than recomputing the formula.

2 files changed, 9 insertions, 5 deletions

diff --git a/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/EventDetailsMenuCommand.java b/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/EventDetailsMenuCommand.java
index c9e7585..2ad7a53 100644
--- a/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/EventDetailsMenuCommand.java
+++ b/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/EventDetailsMenuCommand.java
@@ -34,14 +34,14 @@ public final class EventDetailsMenuCommand implements MenuCommand {
     }
 
     var events = result.getData();
-    var active = events.stream().filter(event -> event.status() == EventStatus.ACTIVE).toList();
+    var viewable = events.stream().filter(event -> event.status() != EventStatus.DRAFT).toList();
 
-    if (active.isEmpty()) {
-      io.println("There are currently no active events to trade on.");
+    if (viewable.isEmpty()) {
+      io.println("There are currently no events to show.");
       return;
     }
 
-    var pick = io.readSelect("Pick an event: ", active, event -> "%s".formatted(event.name()));
+    var pick = io.readSelect("Pick an event: ", viewable, event -> "%s".formatted(event.name()));
 
     var result2 = catalog.getEvent(pick.key());
     var event = result2.getData();
@@ -52,5 +52,9 @@ public final class EventDetailsMenuCommand implements MenuCommand {
 
     io.printState(event.state());
     io.printHistory(event.history());
+
+    if (!event.settledMarket().isBlank()) {
+      io.println("Winning market: %s".formatted(event.settledMarket()));
+    }
   }
 }
diff --git a/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/SettleEventMenuCommand.java b/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/SettleEventMenuCommand.java
index 3ab28a7..3457e08 100644
--- a/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/SettleEventMenuCommand.java
+++ b/ui-console/src/main/java/market/guess/ui/console/command/SettleEventMenuCommand.java
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ public final class SettleEventMenuCommand implements MenuCommand {
     var settleResult = context.settleEvent("Tester", event.summary().key(), winner.key());
     if (settleResult.isSuccess()) {
       io.newLine();
-      io.println("Settled. Winning market: %s".formatted(settleResult.getData().winningOption()));
+      io.println("Settled. Winning market: %s".formatted(settleResult.getData().settledMarket()));
       return;
     }
     io.newLine();